JULY 2025 — On the surface, the first half of 2025 has been challenging for investors. From a trade war and market correction to an escalating Middle East conflict and concerns over the growing national debt, investors may feel as if financial markets are stumbling from one problem to the next. Underlying that volatility is opportunity.

JUNE 2025 — After a challenging April, markets demonstrated resilience by recovering most of their losses and returning to positive territory in May. This positive month occurred against a backdrop of new trade agreements, mixed economic signals and ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal health.

MAY 2025 — April demonstrated the importance of being prepared for market uncertainty as it was one of the most volatile months in history as markets reacted to new tariff announcements.

APRIL 2025 — The markets waffled all month in anticipation of “Liberation Day.” Out at almost the same time, the latest labor market report, showed much stronger job growth than expected. Unfortunately, hard evidence that the labor market isn’t softening wasn’t enough to distract the stock market from the tariff tantrum.

On April 2, President Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all major trading partners. There are many arguments for and against tariffs, and the topic can be politically charged. Regardless of how we each feel about these measures, we can acknowledge that these tariffs do represent a significant change in the global economic system.

MARCH 2025 — It’s a difficult job finding balance between competing economic, market and political demands. The current result is increased volatility and more than a little uncertainty as headlines drive markets.

Trade headlines continue to weigh on markets as new tariffs go into effect. President Trump recently confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, and additional tariffs are expected in the coming months, including reciprocal ones against countries that impose duties on U.S. goods.

Investors worry that a trade war could raise prices for consumers and businesses, slowing economic growth. As a result, the stock market has pulled back in recent days across major indices and sectors.

FEBRUARY 2025 — The saying “as January goes, so goes the year” has been correct 70.8% of the time since 1929, according to S&P Global, and it was a good month.

The first days of the new administration also saw non-stop action.

JANUARY 2025 — With a strong economy, the uncertainty of the election removed, and a pro-business regime about to take power, why are we seeing so much volatility in stocks and bonds?

The transition to a new administration is well underway and a key tax question is near the top of the list of to-do’s — the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires in 2025 and certain provisions might be extended. Markets climbed and now traders are watching the Fed for signs of one more rate cut in 2024.

An election season with several twists and turns came to an end with the reelection of President Donald Trump. A rally followed the decisive election results. October ended with more of a “trick” on Halloween than a “treat,” as the Magnificent 7 gave up most of its gains and took the index into the red.  

September’s reduction in interest rates kicked off the regime change in monetary policy. The long-awaited loosening cycle is finally here, but that doesn't mean volatility is gone. With an election coming and heightened tension in the middle east (to name just two sources), volatility will continue to impact markets.

We’re about to see a change in monetary policy for first time in over a year. With rates poised to go down, consumers and investors will have new options and new choices. Is your financial plan ready?

After weeks of Olympic-themed press reports about the Fed “sticking the (soft) landing” and safely guiding the economy to a place where inflation is coming down and growth is holding off recession, one very bad labor report flipped the script.

With a Fed still undecided on rate cuts and waiting on data, as well as continued heightened geopolitical risk and an election season that is already dramatic, predicting what’s in store for the balance of 2024 has become even more challenging.

Rate cuts in 2024? Who knows? Powell has been clear that rates could stay at the current levels for longer — until the Fed has greater confidence that inflation has meaningfully lowered, and the labor market has cooled. Recent data is making the decision difficult.

April had it all. From sticky inflation to hints of a rate hike, the month proved that volatility is alive and well. For those that looked, silver linings could be found on earnings and productivity.

Powell recently affirmed that we will see rate cuts this year, even if the timing is … well, uncertain. If rates do fall, it will mark the end of a monetary policy tightening regime that started out weird and never looked back.

Recent economic data can tell completely different stories depending on where you focus. But one point of view has been remarkably consistent this year: the market does not seem to care about any of it.

As goes January, so goes the year. That remains to be seen, but last month does have a twofold lesson for the year.